The gambler's fallacy is one that affects most, if not all, casino players. It can be described as the belief that an event is likely to happen less frequently in the future if it has been happening more often within a certain period or vice versa.
The gambler's fallacy is considered a fallacy because it does not account for anything. Previous events cannot influence the probability of an event occurring if each event is independent. For example, in poker, a player's chances of hitting a flush do not increase even after missing it in the previous 30 rounds.
Understanding the Logic Behind the Gambler's Fallacy
Every player needs to understand what the gambler's fallacy entails. That is because it occurs in different ways during a poker game. For example, the chances of the worst player on the table while playing live being dealt a pair of aces are similar to those of the best player.
Most poker players are superstitious, which makes them gullible to the fallacy. A player should also consider letting go of all superstitions that can influence his decisions, to improve their chances of winning. That will help them avoid falling into the gambler's fallacy trap without knowing, even when they have little understanding of how it works.
A poker player can also avoid the gambler's fallacy by randomizing decisions. With randomization, a player is less likely to base any of his game decisions on a previous occurrence. That is because each decision is based on something different, such as a reading of the pot, behavior of opponents, or chips left, among others.
The gambler's fallacy can also affect the process of randomization. Thus, a player should determine an effective way of randomizing decisions, which will not involve any influence from factors such as emotions and previous choices. Randomization can be based on a predetermined pattern, position, a random number generator, or a coin flip.
Avoiding the Martingale Strategy
The Martingale strategy involves doubling the money lost after each game, hoping that the same negative result cannot occur many times consecutively. One win will thus allow a player to recover all the money lost. The strategy is common in roulette, though some poker players also use it.
The Martingales strategy is based on the gambler's fallacy because it is based on the idea that previous results will influence future outcomes. By avoiding the strategy and all other strategies based on the same concept, a player can be sure that the gambler's fallacy will not affect his game.
A Player's Guide to Avoid Falling for the Gamblers Fallacy
The gambler's fallacy affects many poker players. This article shares some tips to save poker players from falling victim to the gambler's fallacy.